Private resale market is getting hotter

31 March 2010

Savills Singapore's analysis show that the average resale prices for private landed and non-landed residential homes here in Singapore have gone through the roof this year. They have even exceeded the sky-high levels seen back in the 2007 boom.

 

1. Island-wide private resale home prices are trending upwards

The euphoria of private home sales in the primary market has certainly spilled over to the resale market. Only two months into 2010*, island-wide prices for both landed and non-landed private resale homes have increased and surpassed the peaks of 2007 and 2009. As compared to the low resale prices in 2008 and 2007, 2010* saw a 19.8 per cent increase in resale prices of non-landed private homes and 31.0 per cent increase for landed homes respectively.

Private resale home prices for landed (S$577 psf) and non-landed homes (S$655 psf) bottomed in 1Q/2009. The largest q-o-q price increase for both non-landed (13.6 per cent) and landed (10.3 per cent) private resale homes was in 3Q/2009, after which prices grew moderately. However, this did not stop resale prices from reaching new peak levels in 1Q/2010*. Non-landed private resale homes recorded S$913 psf and landed homes recorded S$802 psf, surpassing the previous peaks of S$861psf in 3Q/2007 for non-landed homes and S$694 psf in 1Q/2008 for landed homes.

For landed private resale homes, there have been positive month-on-month increments since March 2009 to February 2010, except for a dip of 5.1 per cent in November 2009. The rate of increase for landed private resale homes has slowed down since December 2009.

For non-landed private resale homes, positive month-on-month increments have also been observed from February 2009 except for three dips – a 0.4 per cent marginal decrease in March 2009, a 1.7 per cent decrease in October 2009 and a 3.9 per cent decrease in December 2009.

2. Resale transaction volume going strong

There were a total of 15,009 private resale home (landed and non-landed) transactions in 2009, more than double (103 per cent) the number in 2008. However, this is still below the peak levels in 2007 (20,665 transactions). The increase in resale demand could be partially due to prices rising in the primary (developer sales) and subsale markets. Resale private homes could be a cheaper alternative for genuine home owners in a rising market.

Sales volume picked up after 1Q/2009 and recorded the next highest volume in 3Q/2009 with 4,582 non-landed and 1,166 landed private resale homes being sold. This was 22.8 per cent (non-landed) and 34.7 per cent (landed) below the peak volumes in 2Q/2007.

However, resale demand seems to be stronger in 2009 than the property boom in 2007 – the greatest sales volume jump was 280.5 per cent for non-landed and 210.7 per cent for landed resale homes from 1Q/2009 to 2Q/2009, well surpassing the last record increase of 70.1 per cent for non-landed and 73.6 per cent for landed homes from 1Q/2007 to 2Q/2007.

In 1Q/2010*, there has been an increase of 213.9 per cent in transaction volume of non-landed private resale homes while landed private resale homes has increased 114 per cent from the trough in 4Q/2008.

3. Resale demand in 2009 largely driven by locals

Demand for private resale homes (landed and non-landed) in 2009 is largely driven by Singaporeans which saw an increase of 110.7 per cent y-o-y. Singapore permanent residents (PR) increased 101.3 per cent y-o-y in 2009, followed by Foreigners (NPR) with an increase of 66.1 per cent during the same period.

As reported in a previous Savills article in Straits Times 05 November 2009, the top three buyers of private homes island-wide in 2009 were Malaysian, Indonesian, and Mainland Chinese. Similar to island-wide trends, Malaysians have been the top resale buyers from 2007 to 2010*. However, China has over taken Indonesians in 2009 and 2010*.

4. District 15 is most popular non-landed resale hot spot

District 15 (Katong, Joo Chiat and Amber Road) has been a popular non-landed resale hot spot from 2007 to 2010. The highest number of resale transactions (4,289) took place between 2007 and 2010* with prices rising 14.8 per cent over this time period. The popularity of resale homes in this district could be driven by many new launches in the area. The east side also has many advantages such as sea view, good schools and ample amenities.

District 23 (Hillview, Dairy Farm, Bukit Panjang and Choa Chu Kang) is the next most popular spot in 2008 to 2010*. A total of 2,837 sales transactions took place between 2007 and 2010* and this district has the highest price increase from 2007 to 2010* among the top districts as listed below. The demand could be due to its attractive pricing. Despite having the highest price increment of 25.5 per cent from 2007 to 2010*, average unit price from 2007 to 2009 was still within $500 - S$600 psf. Given its proximity to Bukit Timah belt, the nature reserves, etc, district 23 has an edge over other districts such as 18 and 19 which are also in this price range.   

District 10 (Ardmore, Bukit Timah, Holland Road and Tanglin) is ranked third in 2009 and 2010*. Being the prime location, district 10 has been popular among foreigners. However, demand dropped from 1999 transactions in 2007 to 368 transactions in 2008. With the return of foreigners as the economy begins to recover, the number of transactions sprung to 1,086 in 2009.

Generally, 2010* average unit prices for all the top ten districts have surpassed 2007 prices.

5. Resale price hike in 2010* driven by high-end segment followed by the mid-tier segment

The price hike for private resale homes in 2010*, compared to 2009, has largely been driven by private resale homes in the high-end segment (14 per cent), followed by the mid-tier segment (13.4 per cent). Private resale homes in the mass market segment saw a price jump of 9.7 per cent during the same period. Resale prices for all three categories in 2010* have surpassed 2007 levels.

During the downturn in 2008, only private resale homes in the high-end segment suffered a marginal decline of 0.2 per cent from 2007. Private resale homes in the mid-tier and mass market segments saw a 5.6 per cent and 6.8 per cent price increase respectively.

6. Most popular private resale projects from 2007 to 2010*

The following are the most popular private resale projects from 2007 to 2010* (Projects that have at least 20 transactions per year in 2007, 2008 & 2009 and more than 100 transactions from 2007 to 2010*).

The most popular projects with the highest number of transactions are Costa De Sol (691 transactions), Carribbean at Keppel Bay (448 transactions) and Melville Park (379 transactions).

The projects with the largest price hike from 2007 to 2010* are Orchid Park Condo (37.7 per cent) and Maysprings (37 per cent).

* 2010 and 1Q/2010 include only January and February 2010 caveats from data downloaded on 17 March 2010 URA Realis

 
 

Key contacts

Phylicia Ang

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Director

Shaw House, Orchard Road, Singapore

+65 6836 6888

 

Michael Lim

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Corporate Communications Manager

SGX Centre 1, Singapore

+65 6415 7579